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Kōwhiringa Ledger
NZ 2026 · Election Explorer
Full 2026 election cycle

Polls, swings and party-vote averages

The polling record shows a sustained narrowing from National’s clear post-election lead toward a highly competitive contest. Pollster-to-pollster variation remains material, but Labour recovered through 2025 while NZ First strengthened and Opportunity rose sharply during 2026. Monthly averages reduce individual house effects but should be read as direction-of-travel rather than election forecasts.

Latest poll
21 Aug 2026
RNZ–Reid Research
Leading party
Labour 32.2%
3.1 pts ahead of National
Polls in last 30 days
5
49 polls on file
Seat estimate
60 — 60
Current governing parties vs the rest (120 seats)
010203040JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
LabourNationalGreenACTNZ FirstTe Pāti MāoriTOP
Sources behind this chart · 20 polls
August 2026
July 2026
June 2026
May 2026
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026

Latest numbers and swings

Change compares the two most recent polls that carried a number for each party. Swing compares the last 30 days of polling with the 30 days before it.

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PartyLatestChange30-day avgSwingSeats
Labour32.2%+2.231.4%−1.440
National29.1%+0.129.8%+0.236
NZ First11.9%+3.910.8%−0.415
Green10.2%−1.89.9%−0.513
ACT7.7%−1.37.6%+0.39
TOP5.3%−2.75.9%+1.97
Te Pāti Māori3.0%+2.02.3%−0.5–

Comparing RNZ–Reid Research (21 Aug 2026) with 1News–Verian (11 Aug 2026).

How the pollsters compare

Each pollster's most recent published result.

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PollsterDateLABNATNZFGRNACTTOPTPM
RNZ–Reid Research21 Aug 202632.229.111.910.27.75.33.0
1News–Verian11 Aug 202630.029.08.012.09.08.01.0
Talbot Mills11 Aug 202634.029.013.08.07.05.23.0
Taxpayers’ Union–Curia4 Aug 202627.831.09.110.17.36.11.5
Roy Morgan21 Dec 202532.533.010.012.07.52.52.5
Adjustable poll record

Every individual poll, averaged your way

One combined record of every nationwide party-vote poll on file, including releases the site collects automatically as they are published. Choose a date range and which pollsters to include; the averages and the trend line update to match. Figures are shown only where the pollster reported them — nothing is estimated, and no electorate-level numbers are published in these releases.

Pollsters included

Average party vote across 20 polls

18 Jan 2026 – 21 Aug 2026
010203040JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
Sources for the selected polls · 20 polls
August 2026
July 2026
June 2026
May 2026
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026
LAB33.2%NAT30.3%NZF11.0%GRN10.3%ACT7.3%TOP3.4%TPM2.6%
LabourNationalGreenACTNZ FirstTe Pāti MāoriTOP

Loading collected polls…

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Individual party-vote polls
DatePollsterFieldworkMarginLABNATNZFGRNACTTOPTPM
21 Aug 2026RNZ–Reid Research
14–21 Aug±3.1 pts*32.229.111.910.27.75.33.0
11 Aug 20261News–Verian
8–11 Aug±3.1 pts*30.029.08.012.09.08.01.0
11 Aug 2026Talbot Mills
1–11 Aug±3.1 pts*34.029.013.08.07.05.23.0
4 Aug 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1–4 Aug±3.1 pts*27.831.09.110.17.36.11.5
25 Jul 2026Talbot Mills
July (reported 25 Jul)±3.1 pts*33.031.012.09.07.04.73.0
9 Jul 2026RNZ–Reid Research
2–9 Jul±3.1 pts*34.028.711.510.37.84.72.3
5 Jul 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1–5 Jul±3.1 pts*31.530.510.810.46.93.33.4
17 Jun 20261News–Verian
13–17 Jun±3.1 pts*32.029.011.013.06.04.62.0
10 Jun 2026Talbot Mills
1–10 Jun±3.1 pts*34.029.012.013.06.03.32.6
8 Jun 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
4–8 Jun±3.1 pts*32.230.111.411.57.83.23.1
7 May 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
3–7 May±3.1 pts*31.930.011.79.76.52.84.1
15 Apr 20261News–Verian
11–15 Apr±3.1 pts*37.030.010.011.07.03.02.0
2 Apr 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1–2 Apr±3.1 pts*33.429.813.67.89.02.62.6
23 Mar 2026RNZ–Reid Research
March poll±3.1 pts*35.630.810.610.17.02.03.2
12 Mar 2026Talbot Mills
2–12 Mar±3.1 pts*35.032.011.011.07.02.41.7
3 Mar 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1–3 Mar±3.1 pts*34.428.49.710.57.51.93.2
11 Feb 20261News–Verian
7–11 Feb±3.1 pts*32.034.010.011.09.01.02.0
3 Feb 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
1–3 Feb±3.1 pts*34.131.310.510.36.71.42.9
22 Jan 2026RNZ–Reid Research
15–22 Jan±3.1 pts*35.031.99.89.67.62.33.0
18 Jan 2026Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
14–18 Jan±3.1 pts*34.431.511.97.77.00.73.0

Reading the margin. Every poll only surveys a sample, so each party's number could reasonably be a little higher or lower. The margin shown is the maximum at the usual 95% confidence level: if two parties are closer together than that margin, treat them as tied rather than one being ahead. Entries marked * assume the industry-standard sample of about 1,000 people, because the poll did not publish its sample size.

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<iframe src="https://nzelectionhub.com/embed/polls"
  title="NZ 2026 party vote"
  width="360" height="320"
  style="border:0;max-width:100%"
  loading="lazy"></iframe>
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NZ 2026 party vote
21 Aug 2026
Labour
32.2%
+2.2
National
29.1%
+0.1
NZ First
11.9%
+3.9
Green
10.2%
−1.8
ACT
7.7%
−1.3
TOP
5.3%
−2.7
Te Pāti Māori
3.0%
+2.0
RNZ–Reid Researchnzelectionhub.com